Business Model
Pricing
- One-time Purchase: ~$15,000
- Subscription: ~$199/month
Deferred Revenue
- As of end 2022, Tesla had ~$2.9 billion in FSD-related deferred revenue
- Q4 2022 recognized $324 million in FSD revenue
Robotaxi Plan
Tesla plans small-scale Robotaxi pilot in Austin, Texas in 2025.
Technology Comparison
| Dimension | Tesla FSD | Waymo/Cruise | Mobileye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensors | Vision-only (8 cameras) | Multi-sensor fusion | Vision+LiDAR fusion |
| Maps | No HD maps | Depends on 3D maps | Hybrid approach |
| Decision | End-to-end deep learning | Rule-based + formal verification | Modular + rule-based |
| Business Model | B2C software direct | Robotaxi mobility service | B2B tech supplier |
Key Conclusions
- Tesla leverages 4M vehicle fleet data network effect for rapid iteration
- Vision-only approach costs low (~hundreds vs tens of thousands of dollars)
- Waymo pursues “local extreme safety,” Tesla pursues “generalization capability”
Pros and Cons
Advantages:
- Generalization
- Iteration speed
Disadvantages:
- Safety verification
- Regulatory trust